Saurashtra, Kutch and some regions of South Gujarat have made their decision, and now it remains for the rest of the state to make a call. Final voter turnout in Phase I of 89 seats in the highly anticipated Gujarat Assembly elections stood at 66.75 per cent as announced by the Election Commission.
BJP president Amit Shah and his party is confident and claim to win 150 out of the 182 seat Assembly. And if various opinion polls are to be believed, it will have the last laugh in the nail-biting contest. Congress on the other hand, is expected to make gains, still lacking enough to gain power. Latest survey by Cvoter has predicted that the BJP is most likely to win 109 seats, several short of the party's own prediction, and Rahul Gandhi's Congress may have to settle with a mere 76.
A collective result of three different surveys conducted by Cvoter, Times Now-VMR, and Lokniti-CSDS-ABP has a similar prediction. Other independent candidates may only win 3 seats. Times Now-VMR opinion poll predicts 106-116 seats for the BJP, Cvoter/TV9 predicts 109 seats, while the Lokniti-CSDS-ABP poll gives the ruling party 91 to 99 seats. In all three predictions, the common result is that the BJP will win with a majority mark in the 182-member Assembly. On the other hand, Congress has been given 78 to 86 seats by the Lokniti-CSDS-ABP poll, 63 to 73 seats by Times Now-VMR, and 73 seats by Cvoter/TV9.
Times Now-VMR poll has said that even the Congress and its grand alliance of caste grouping has failed to convert votes, registering only a minor increase in seats from 61 to 63. It comes as clear as day that Gandhi's caste coalition has done him no good. Meanwhile, it should be interesting to see whether NaMo has managed to convince the people of his economic reforms and infrastructural developments in the state.
This election, the going was as tough as it could get for the BJP. Several local leaders sprouted with firm roots in their respective communities. The Dalit unrest centred in Una led to the birth of a political leader called Jignesh Mevani. The long-running turbulence amongst the Patidar community for a piece of the quota in government jobs found a voice in Hardik Patel. Congress played farmer distress in rural areas of the state to its advantage. All of this, while the Muslim community gets pushed into oblivion.
According to the final data released by the poll panel, tribal- dominated Narmada district witnessed the highest turnout at 79.15 per cent while Devbhumi-Dwarka seat in the Saurashtra region saw the lowest turnout at 59.39 per cent. While 12 districts recorded a voter turnout of less than 70 per cent, seven registered the polling percentage of 70 per cent, it said. Narmada district comprises Dediapada and Nandod constituencies - both reserved seats currently held by the BJP.
BJP MLA Motilal Vasava is fighting against Mahesh Vasava, son of rebel JD(U) leader Chhotubhai Vasava in crucial tribal-dominated Dediapada seat. Vasava is contesting as the candidate of the Bharatiya Tribal Party (BTP), floated by his father ahead of elections. In Dwarka constituency, the main fight is between the BJP and the Congress. Prominent candidates in the first-phase poll battle included Gujarat Chief Minister Vijay Rupani and Congress' Shaktisinh Gohil and Paresh Dhanani.
Despite greater hype, the voter turnout in Patidar- dominated constituencies recorded a dip as compared to 2012. In the 22 constituencies in Saurashtra and South Gujarat, which have over 25% Patidar voters, voting was an average of 64.22% which was 69.69% in 2012 - a drop of 5.47% in these 22 constituencies. According to the data released by the CEO, Gujarat, five constituencies like Gondal, Jamjodhopur, Lathi, Karanj and Dhoraji registered a drop ranging from 8.4% to nearly 12%. Gondal which has around 50% Patidar population registered a drop of 11.81%.
In these 22 constituencies, the only constituency with 28.23% Patidar population, Rajkot West, has registered an increase in the voting. The high-profile constituency where chief minister Vijay Rupani is contesting saw an increase of about 4% in voting. Of the five constituencies where leaders of Patidar Anamat Andolan Samiti are contesting from Congress, three constituencies including Dhoraji, Varachha Road and Kamrej went for elections on Saturday. Interestingly, the voting in all the three constituencies recorded a dip. The second and final phase of elections for remaining 93 seats will be held on Thursday, December 14. Counting of votes will be held on December 18.
