Five years of double incumbency; memories of a devastating pandemic that killed and displaced thousands, dented growth, worsened the already-serious challenge of unemployment and triggered inflation; and an awkward retreat after a bruising confrontation with farmers. The odds could not have been loaded more adversely.
Yet, PM Narendra Modi's BJP managed to defy them to lead BJP to a resounding 4:1 victory, in a performance that again attested to his appeal as the saffron talisman and underlined BJP's domination of Indian politics. On a day when Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal's AAP steamrollered its opponents to score a landslide win in Punjab, smashing the stubborn historical barrier that has hitherto restricted regional parties to their home ground, it was the BJP-led Modi that dwarfed the field elsewhere, its pre-eminence stamped starker than ever before.
The results mark an emphatic confirmation of BJP's status as the frontrunner and undercut the narrative that had gained ground, in the aftermath of the Bengal debacle, about Modi's diminished ability to swing elections other than for the Centre.
While BJP may have lost some seats in UP compared with its overwhelming majority in 2019, it's worth remembering that this is the first time in 70 years that a CM has returned to office. It bulldozed its way past the SP-RLD combine, which enjoyed the backing of the ‘farmer leaders’. Neither the dissent of local MP Varun Gandhi nor the widely reported anger over the deaths of farmers in Lakhimpur Kheri could prevent it from sweeping the region.
Even BJP's slightly slimmer returns add up to a rock solid two-thirds majority. This was achieved despite BSP's disappearance, which turned the elections into a bipolar fight against SP, virtually guaranteeing Akhilesh Yadav the support of Muslims and Yadavs, who make up 30% of the electorate. In the face of an attempt to revive the ‘upper caste versus OBC’ narrative, BJP succeeded in defying social divisions to raise its vote share.
Uttarakhand marked the first time since the creation of the state 22 years ago that the incumbent has retained office. The tally of 48 seats out of 70 is modest only when contrasted with the massive 57 the party bagged five years ago. It has surpassed the expectations of even hardcore BJP optimists and is tribute to the popularity of Modi, who is synonymous with ambitious development projects in the state and the successful vaccination campaign. It is also testimony to the successful salvage operation by Pushkar Singh Dhami who, ironically, himself lost by a significant margin. Interestingly, five seats in Uttarakhand were decided by margins of less than 1,000 votes.
In both Goa and Manipur, BJP survived anti-incumbency and defied predictions to improve its numbers. The outright win in Manipur is a reaffirmation of BJP's emergence, in keeping with its growing footprint, as the main political force of the northeast. In Goa, which the party has won for the third time, it was halted at the midway mark but improved its vote share. CM Pramod Sawant, in his new term, will be only marginally vulnerable to pressure from an ally. That the party convincingly defeated Congress's determined challenge in Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur should make the victories even sweeter.
Arguably the most grievous blow to Congress was inflicted by AAP in Punjab. Congress-governed territory has shrunk even further, in a manner reminiscent of failing empires besieged by rivals nibbling at their spheres of influence. Its demolition in Punjab puts a big question mark on the party's claim to be the natural leader of a non-BJP alliance and leaves the Rahul-Priyanka duo vulnerable to challenge from within.
