Given an average growth rate of 8 per cent over the next 15 years, the Indian economy is expected to witness an over three-fold expansion by 2031-32, growing to £4,690 billion. In a brief about his presentation at Niti Aayog's governing council meeting, chaired by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the think-tank’s vice-chairman Arvind Panagariya said, “Our base GDP is large. If we grow at 8 per cent average rate for the next 15 years, our GDP will be £4,690 billion by 2030.”
According to his presentation, the GDP is expected to grow by £3,320 billion in the next 15 years, compared with an expansion of £910 billion in the past 15 years. “I said in 1999-2000, we were £ 460 billion at 2015-16 prices. We added £910 billion to this by 2015-16. We came to £1,370 billion by 2015-16... a little lower than $2.1 trillion,” Panagariya said. “We could grow at 8 per cent in rupee and 10 per cent in dollar terms.”
The presentation showed that India's per capita GDP is expected to rise to Rs 3,14,776 in 2031-32 from Rs 1,06,589 in 2015-16, while the country's urban population is also expected to rise by 220 million by 2031-32 to 600 million, against 377 million in 2011. Panagariya also noted that the central and state expenditure is expected to rise by £920 billion to £1,300 billion in 2031-32 from £ 380 billion in 2015-16. The total and the per capita GDP have been calculated at 2015-16 prices.
The former ADP chief economist, in his presentation, outlined the three-year action plan, a draft of which is in final stages. He said the plan was a part of the seven-year National Development Agenda, which in turn was a part of the 15-year vision document. The three-year plan for the years between 2017-18 and 2019-20 will coincide with recommendations of the Fourteenth Finance Commission to give stability to the funding estimates of both the Centre and states. Panagariya said the three-year plan would comprise seven overarching themes. The first part would look at the revenue and expenditure of the said period.
The second part would have action points for transformation of agriculture, industry, and services sector. The third part is expected to focus on regional development and would form regional strategies for urban development and rural transformation. The fourth talks about growth enablers such as transport connectivity, digital connectivity, public-private partnerships, energy, science and technology, innovation, and entrepreneurship. The fifth part focuses on governance issues such as tax policies and administration, rule of law, and pro-competition policies and regulations. The sixth part looks at social sector issues such as health, education, and skill development, while the final part would discuss sustainability issues like environment and management of water resources.
