China and India together will contribute half of global growth this year, compared to barely a tenth for the US and the Euro area put together, an International Monetary Fund (IMF) report said. The IMF, which released an update to its World Economic Outlook (WEO), retained India’s GDP growth projections for 2022-23 at 6. 8% and 6.1% for 2023-24 and 6.8% in 2024-25.
According to the most recent Economic Survey, India's economy would rise by 7% in 2022–2023 before slowing to 6–8% in 2023–2024. In spite of the bleak global picture and uncertainty brought on by the Ukraine war, India's growth has remained resilient.
“Growth in India is set to decline from 6. 8% in 2022-23 to 6. 1% in 2023-24 before picking up to 6. 8% in 2024-25, with resilient domestic demand, despite external headwinds,” according to the WEO update.
According to the report, China's real GDP will drop in the fourth quarter of 2022, which would result in a 0. 2 percentage point reduction in, bringing the country's growth rate below the world average for the first time in more than 40 years.
According to the IMF, growth in China is expected to reach 5.2% in 2023, reflecting significantly improved mobility, and to drop to 4.5% in 2024 before stabilising at less than 4% over the medium term, amid diminishing business dynamism and limited progress on structural changes.
“The global economy is poised to slow this year, before rebounding next year. Growth will remain weak by historical standards, as the fight against inflation and Russia’s war in Ukraine weigh on activity,” said IMF chief economist Pierre Olivier Gourinchas. “Despite these headwinds, the outlook is less gloomy than in our October forecast, and could represent a turning point, with growth bottoming out and inflation declining,” said Gourinchas.
